首頁 > 專欄 > 正文

北京霧霾之戰 Beijing vs. Smog

時間:2017-02-16 10:03

作者:常紀文

1487210138676021.png

近幾年,京津冀地區尤其是北京的霧霾污染,因為波及面廣,程度嚴重,引起國內外的廣泛關注。霧霾污染既傷害國民健康,也損害外來資本和外來人才進入的積極性,還會對資本市場產生沖擊。更為重要的是,頻發的區域霧霾反映出中國傳統發展的模式及其可持續性受到了前所未有的挑戰。

In recent years, heavy smog in the vast Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region , and Beijing in particular, has aroused wide concern from both China and the world. The pollution harms public health, intimidates foreign investment and talent and upsets the capital market. Most importantly, frequent smog presents unprecedented challenges to the sustainability of China’s conventional development mode.

霧霾來自何方?

WHERE DOES THE SMOG COME FROM?

京津冀地區霧霾的形成,主要來自工業、機動車和建筑揚塵排放的顆粒物、氮氧化物、硫氧化物等污染物,也來自于農業和家庭生活排放。對于北京來說,除了來自天津和河北特別是河北的工業輸送外,霧霾的形成主要根源還是自己長期發展過程中形成的大城市病。

Smog in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is composed of particles, nitrogen oxide and sulfur oxide emitted by industry, motor vehicles, agricultural work and construction. Beijing’s smog, exacerbated by emissions from Tianjin and Hebei Province, is rooted in its own development.

北京三面環山, 秋冬季一旦出現靜風天氣,不利于大氣污染物的擴散,容易形成霧霾。按照京津冀地區協同發展的安排,北京市已經疏散了鋼鐵生產、家具生產等一批工業和加工業企業,實現了工業的清潔化。

Surrounded by mountains on three sides, Beijing is most vulnerable to smog on windless days in autumn and winter. As part of the Coordinated Development for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, producers and processors of steel and furniture were pushed out of Beijing, which was designated a clean-industry city. 

根據清華大學對霧霾的監測和分析,無論是PM2.5還是PM10,2016年的平均濃度比以前均有一定程度的下降,這得益于中央的環境保護督察的嚴肅追責,得益于《大氣污染防治行動計劃》給京津冀地區各地設立的年均濃度考核規定,得益于京津冀地區日益嚴格的工業、機動車排放等管制措施。

According to monitoring and analysis by Tsinghua University, concentration of PM2.5 and PM10 this year was lower than in years past, an improvement that has been credited to strict enforcement of environmental protection standards by inspectors from the central government, regulations related to the annual average concentration in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Beijing vs. Smog By Chang Jiwen region outlined in the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan and increasingly stringent control of emissions from industry and vehicles in the region.

1487210199344579.png

但根據觀察,2015年前,北京市比較嚴重霧霾天氣的形成往往需要兩天以上的醞釀期,而到了2016年,比較嚴重的霧霾天氣往往在一天之內就醞釀形成了。盡管平均濃度比以前有所下降,但是大氣污染物的形成卻加快了,這說明北京市的大城市病不僅沒有得到緩解,有些方面還在繼續惡化。

However, casual observers have been singing a different tune. Before 2015, the heavy smog in Beijing would envelope the city after two days of incubation. In 2016, however, heavy smog swept the city the day incubation began. With lower concentration, air pollutants now form more quickly, demonstrating that Beijing’s urban disease has deteriorated in some ways rather than being alleviated.

一個生態城市應當是建立在綠色之中的尊重自然的城市,不得改變自然地貌和自然生態,即綠色是城市的主體,建筑和馬路應融合在綠色中。

An ecological city respects nature and doesn’t change the local landforms and ecology. The location should be green and only dotted with buildings and roads

但從空中俯瞰,處于三面環山盆底的北京市,城區地面上除了高樓就是馬路,綠色植被成了點綴。高樓之中集聚了大量的人口和產業,產生了大量的生活和生產排放;馬路上布滿了汽車,由于交通擁堵成為常態,加劇了交通排放的總量;加上北京市缺水,人口集聚過多,地下水抽取過量,區域生態環境受到影響。

In contrast, Beijing’s basin floor, with mountains in three directions, is carpeted with buildings and roads and only dotted by a relative handful of plants. A dense population living in tall buildings, shuttling to numerous companies in other tall buildings, generates tremendous emissions and frequent traffic jams, which in turn increases automobile emissions. Beijing is a city with a dense population but scarce water, so underground water has been over-pumped, decimating the ecology of the region.

可以說,這種不符合自然地貌限制、自然資源稟賦限制和生態環境保護需要的超環境容量發展是造成近年來北京霧霾環繞的主要原因之一。

In conclusion, Beijing’s smog in recent years has mainly been caused by development beyond its environment at capacity. Its development went against the restrictions on landform, natural resources, and environment at protection.

優化城市管理 UPGRADE CITY MANAGEMENT

_ueditor_page_break_tag_

解決北京霧霾問題,先要采用優化城市管理的方法緩解大城市病。首先,應當優化城市空間開發利用結構,遵循地理、氣象、生態等基本條件,形成可持續的生產、生活和生態空間。

To solve Bejing’s smog problem, the top priority should be upgrading city management, which will immediately ease Beijing’s urban ills. The structure of the city must be optimized. The city’s space should be aligned with basic geographic, atmospheric and ecological conditions to foster scientific and sustainable usage of production, living and ecological space. 

可以推動城市周邊發展一批美麗鄉村和特色小鎮,既補足發展區域的短板,彌補新動能的區域空白,也可凈化區域空氣,形成生態防線;大力發展城鄉污水、垃圾集中處理,提升區域環境質量,為工業排放騰出一定的環境指標。

Beijing can also build ecological villages and specialized small towns. Such projects not only improve backward sectors and create new growth drivers for development, but also clean the air and create an ecological defense line. The city should also strive to develop centralized processing of sewage and waste while spreading out industrial emissions.

其次,應以最堅決的態度執行城市開發利用邊界制度,防止各城市主城區、各區縣城區、各鄉鎮城區的范圍繼續膨脹,超過區域生態環境容量。同時,嚴格執法,打擊環境違法行為,為新動能競爭力的形成奠定堅實的法治基礎。

Second, a system limiting the area available for city development should be implemented to prevent the urban areas of cities, districts and counties from swelling beyond the capacity of the ecological environment. At the same time, strict enforcement of environmental violations would create a sound environment for the development of the new growth drivers.

1487210270703482.png

第三,可以借鑒英國倫敦治理霧霾和中國東南沿海發展的歷史經驗,開展能源結構改革和自然資源消耗總量控制制度,倒逼城市開展資源節約型和環境友好型改革。2016年,按照北京市的統一部署,各城區和平原農村正在進行煤改電和煤改氣工程,已有463個村冬季取暖不燒煤;到2020年,全市新用水量將封頂在31億立方米。

Third, Bejing can learn from London’s experience of controlling smog and the development of coastal areas of southeast China. The capital can launch reforms of its energy consumption structure and curtail the overall consumption of natural resources, putting pressure on major comprehensive reform to conserve more resources and become environmentally friendly. In 2016, Beijing’s municipal government ordered towns and villages in the plains areas to replace coal with electricity and natural gas. As a result, 463 villages have abandoned the use of coal. By 2020, new added water consumption should be limited to 3.1 billion cubic meters.

此外, 繼續優化城市交通,緩解堵車現象,減少交通排放。北京市目前的公共交通資源在高峰時間已經完全飽和, 基本無法在地面再做加法。紐約經驗值得借鑒,即在現有地鐵路線上建設快速地鐵線,只在重點站停靠,解決交通潮汐現象。如此,通過地下公共交通的快速化,緩解地面交通擁堵和污染物排放總量。同時,也要利用經濟調控手段倒逼人們選擇經濟合理的交通方式,調整出行時段和出行區域,進一步管控機動車的污染物排放。

Moreover, the upgrading of traffic infrastructure should continue. Elimination of traffic jams cuts emissions from the roads. During rush hours, Beijing’s public transportation resources are exhausted, and no more space can be created on the ground. We can learn from New York. The American city built express subway lines alongside existing routes to solve its traffic problems. Express trains only stop at important stations, easing traffic jams and curbing emissions on the ground. Meanwhile, to further eliminate emissions from automobiles, economic adjustment can motivate people to choose more ecologically-friendly transportation. Measures to stagger the times people arrive at work and change their routes should also be taken.

最后, 對企業生產實行科學的排放管控措施。2016年冬季, 為了應對霧霾危害, 河北省會石家莊實行了史上最嚴的限霾令, 規定無論排放是否達標, 一些企業在年底前一律停產, 因此引發了社會各界的爭議和資本市場的憂慮。實際上, 可以嘗試排污許可管理和總量控制制度, 對于企業的污染物排放實行流量管理, 即在許可證中載明各企業大氣污染物的年排放總量和季度排放總量, 讓企業合理安排生產總量。

Lastly, emissions from enterprises should be controlled in a scientific manner. This winter, Shijiazhuang, capital of Hebei Province, implemented the strictest ever smog-control order, according to which some enterprises had to stop production by the end of 2016 regardless of whether their emissions met the criteria. This was a controversial move that upset the capital market. In fact, the city could control the flow of emissions of enterprises by introducing emission licensing and a quantity control system. The yearly and quarterly permitted quantity of emissions would be specified in the license so enterprises can plan production independently.

區域聯動:有區別的共同責任

REGIONAL COOPERATION: COMMON BUT DIFFERENT

RESPONSIBILITIES

生態環境是一個系統,大氣環境也不例外。京津冀地區同屬一片天空,在復雜的氣候條件下,大氣污染物會相互輸送,因此每個城市尤其是北京地區的霧霾治理不能完全靠自己,北京霧霾治理要在區域協同發展的格局中統籌開展。

The ecology is a large system, as is the atmosphere. Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei Province share an atmosphere. Under complicated weather conditions, air pollutants move throughout the region. Any one city in the region, Beijing in particular, cannot clean up smog on its own. Beijing’s smog should be addressed via coordinated efforts across the whole region._ueditor_page_break_tag_

共同但有區別責任原則是氣候變化國際應對的一個基本原則, 也可以為區域霧霾的聯合防治提供借鑒和參考。大氣污染聯防聯控強調各區域和各領域共同的大氣污染防治責任, 但是這種共同責任是有區別的。

Common but different responsibility is a basic principle of international approaches to climate change, which also serve as references for the joint prevention and treatment of smog in this region. Coordinated interregional prevention and control efforts call for common but different responsibilities in terms of preventing and controlling air pollution emanating from a variety of areas and sectors.

1487210418262281.png

有區別的責任體現在不同發展程度的區域之間,體現在不同的行業或者領域之間:如工業大類中的采礦業、制造業等行業的排放量遠遠大于農業排放量,第三產業中的交通運輸業排放的危害遠遠大于農業排放的危害,因此,工業、農業和第三產業在大氣污染聯防聯控的責任承擔方面應當實行有區別的責任原則;

Regionally different responsibilities are organized according to different levels of development, different industries and different sectors. For instance, emissions from mining and manufacturing far exceed those of agriculture, and emissions from transportation related to tertiary industry result in much greater harm to the environment than those of agriculture. Therefore, industry, agriculture and tertiary industry should have different responsibilities in terms of reducing air pollution within common coordinated interregional prevention and control efforts.

同一行業內不同污染程度的企業承擔的責任不同,如火電廠、冶煉廠、水泥廠等,這些高耗能的企業既排放大量的細顆粒物,又排放大量的硫氧化物、氮氧化物等污染物質,在整個減排過程中應承擔主要責任;

Enterprises in the same sector have different responsibilities according to the different degrees of damage they do to the environment. High-energyconsuming enterprises such as thermal power plants, foundries and cement factories, which emit a great amount of fine particulate matter, sulfur oxides, and nitric oxides, have big responsibilities to reduce emission.

從綜合區域和行業的特點來看,若某區域或行業排放總量較大,其地方政府與行業部門就應當承擔主要的管制責任。以京津冀地區為例,北京應當對交通排放管制承擔主要的監管責任,而河北應當對其工業減排承擔主要的監管責任。

From the broader view of regions and industries, local governments of regions with greater emissions should take greater responsibilities, as should departments that oversee industries with greater emissions. In the case of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, Beijing should take greater responsibilities on transportation emission control, while Hebei should take greater responsibilities to curb industrial emissions.

治霾戰略需要歷史耐心

CONTROLLING SMOG PATIENTLY

霧霾問題不僅是中國面臨的現實問題,也是所有經濟快速發展的轉型國家所面臨的社會現實。在歷史上,英國、美國等發達國家的部分地區在轉型過程中也遭受了為期10年以上的嚴重霧霾。最近幾年,除了中國以外,霧霾還橫掃了印度、越南等經濟快速發展的發展中國家,如2016年11月,印度新德里就遭受了10年以來最嚴重的霧霾。

Smog is not a problem unique to China. Every country that has developed rapidly has experienced it. Parts of Britain and the U.S. endured smog for over ten years during the height of the countries’ economic transformations. In recent years, smog has also gripped countries with high-speed growth such as India and Vietnam. In November of last year, India’s New Delhi suffered the heaviest smog of the decade.

總體來說,北京霧霾治理要堅持“頂部論”的認識論,即最近幾年和今后若干年,環境污染物的排放總量會處于歷史高位,復合型污染的特征更加明顯,環境質量狀況非常復雜。

In general, concerned departments should keep in mind that in the near future, overall pollution will remain high, and characteristics of multiple types of pollutants will become even more obvious. Environmental conditions may become even more complicated.

1487210481292666.png

今后10年,中國的主要污染物排放總體上處于跨越峰值并進入下降通道的轉折期,預計在2022年至2025年,主要污染物排放總量的拐點可能全面到來。但是目前,京津冀地區PM2.5年均濃度經過治理雖然有所下降,PM2.5前體物的濃度仍然是發達國家的10倍左右。未來5到10年內,中國將處于環境與經濟發展矛盾的凸顯期和環境標準及要求的提高期,遇上經濟下行壓力期,過關越坎的難度更大,艱巨性前所未有。

Over the next ten years, China’s emissions will reach a turning point, but they will peak before decreasing. Analysts predict that the turning point will take place sometime between 2022 and 2025. At present, however, the annual concentration of PM2.5 in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has decreased to some extent since control measures have been adopted,but still measures about ten times that of developed countries. In the next five to ten years, China will witness a remarkable collision between environmental protection and economic development, and environmental quality standards will improve during this period. Moreover, since China’s economy faces pressure from an economic slowdown, the combined difficulties will be unprecedented._ueditor_page_break_tag_

同時, 霧霾治理也要堅持“ 階段論” 的認識論, 即既要有解決環境問題的歷史緊迫感, 在戰略部署上也要有適當的歷史耐心, 以與經濟社會發展相協調、污染防治與生態建設相結合的方式, 在發展中科學、穩妥、分階段地解決環境問題。

Meanwhile, policymakers addressing smog need a sense of urgency as well as patience. Environmental problems should be solved scientifically, appropriately, and in stages. Measures for the prevention and control of smog should be coordinated with economic and societal development and combined with ecological improvement measures.

中國整體上正在走出先污染后治理的歷史困局,一些發達地區已經初步實現了經濟發展和環境保護的良性循環。但在中西部不少地區,邊污染邊治理、邊破壞邊修復的狀況可能還會持續一段時間。如果堅持努力推進治標與治本措施,環境惡化的現象在2020年前可能得到根本遏制, 中國于2030年進入制造強國的行列后,經濟發展和環境保護協同的局面有可能全面形成。這說明,霧霾治理要遵循經濟發展和環境保護的基本規律,既不可懈怠,也不可冒進。

As a whole, China is emerging from the pollution trap of its development trajectory. Some modernized areas have already achieved a healthy and sustainable circle of development and environmental protection. However, in many places in central and western China, the model of treating while polluting and restoring after destroying may continue to endure for some time. If the country sticks to both temporary and permanent measures, environmental deterioration could be stopped by 2020. By 2030, the manufacturing powerhouse of China could enjoy the harmony of economic development and environmental protection. Smog control must follow the basic rules of economic development and environmental protection. Inertia as well as ill-advised rushes to action should both be avoided.

1
  • 微信
  • QQ
  • 騰訊微博
  • 新浪微博
網友評論 1人參與 | 0條評論
河南22选5开奖号码查询